Gallium3D will be worse than NVidia's/ATI's proprietary solution. So I bet they won't use it. GEM is also useless to them because their proprietary manager is faster than GEM.
There's one thing you didn't mention that *would* help the binary drivers: UXA/EXA (should eliminate the lag in compositing) and maybe DRI2. I hope ATI has plans to support UXA/EXA soon in Catalyst :P


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