So what are the odds of having VDPAU support in xorg-driver-ati one day in the future?
Phoronix: NVIDIA Releases Standalone VDPAU Library
While NVIDIA developed VDPAU (the Video Decode and Presentation API for Unix, one awesome way of accelerating HD video playback with great results) for use in their proprietary graphics driver, the API itself is open and has been well adopted by multimedia applications. VDPAU has worked out so well and has received critical mass that there is a VDPAU back-end for Intel's VA-API and work is underway on bringing VDPAU support directly to Intel's graphics driver. VDPAU may one day end up being used in other open-source drivers too...
http://www.phoronix.com/vr.php?view=NzU0MA
So what are the odds of having VDPAU support in xorg-driver-ati one day in the future?
Last time I checked, the documentation released by AMD lacked any info for the video decoder. Also, as Bridgman pointed out earlier, the early HD Radeons had the acceleration implemented in a way such that documenting it would compromise HDCP (or something along those lines).
I'd say video acceleration for R600/R700 is simply not coming to opensource drivers (not from official sources), we might see it in fglrx if we're lucky.
Such is the sorry state of linux graphics - my choices are intel (drivers in quantum state, getting all the features to work with adequate performance is next to impossible for a casual Linux user), AMD (no opensource 3D for cards less than 4 years old, proprietary driver has problems with some basic functionality (Xv) and switching between computer power modes), nvidia (no opensource driver worth using yet, proprietary driver mostly works, but lacks some common features (XR&R1.2), and there's always the creeping shadow of nvidia's 'Bumpgate'). Other graphics vendors have no drivers/hardware worth using.
There is opensource 3D for all currently shipping ATi cards. Your info is too old.AMD (no opensource 3D for cards less than 4 years old
It's not at the level of their binary right now, but many advanced games work (stuff like Nexuiz).
I run open drivers on my rv710 at home (chipset released this year, I believe), play OpenArena and neverball for hours on end, and have all the 3d effects in KWin enabled, and I have no issues right now. So for me, it's both useful and stable, although it won't reach feature parity with fglrx for quite a while.
I'm sure that experiences will differ, though, as the rate of development is really fast. But I disagree that there is no OSS 3D for any card less than 4 years old.
The AMD/XOrg devs have been doing great work recently.