Tough question. The open source driver is maybe 1/100th the size and complexity of the proprietary driver (closer to 1/30th if you include all the Mesa common code) and in the areas where performance depends on cubic developer-years of optimization the open source driver is likely to always be slower simply because the proprietary drivers share code across all OSes and development costs can be shared across almost 100% of the PC market.
That said, I don't expect the difference to be that big, and I also expect there will be a number of workloads where you do get performance parity quickly. The initial performance estimates we made were based on having a couple of AMD developers and maybe 6-8 full-time-equivalent community developers (not the thousands of developers that were being talked about

). Right now the number of AMD developers working on 2D/3D performance is pretty much what we planned (we hired more devs than originally planned but they aren't all working on 3D graphics) and the community developer pool is a bit smaller than we had expected.
Performance gains are running maybe 12-18 months behind what I expected (which pretty much fits the difference in #developers), but all indications are still that going from "blob is 3x as fast" to "blob is 1.5x as fast" (roughly where r300g seems to be today on 5xx hardware) should happen fairly quickly, say within a year. What I don't know is whether the r600g driver is going to need a fancier shader compiler to get there.
So... yes, I think the current model is sustainable. It's easy to forget that the devs have implemented support for ~10 years of hardware (2002-2012) in less than 5 years of development (2007-2012) and that now new hardware support is close to being "caught up" relatively more of that effort can go into features, performance, etc...