I just read TFA from Adobe and I understand all. It's not that Adobe is dropping support; they know that Linux upgrade cycles are extremely short compared to Windows / Mac OS X, they will maintain Flash 11.2 basically to fulfill the demands of Debian Stable / RHEL / SLES users, and they will attempt to move everyone in Linux to PPAPI.
I even APPLAUD this move. Linux are always the guys who start the trends, and that will be preserved. The first ones with a 64 bit Flash plugin, the first ones with the next-gen plugin API.
I see Adobe hasn't defined how it's going to distribute the plugin, and that's because nothing but Chrome supports PPAPI. If Firefox doesn't want to support PPAPI, I bet 1,000 internets that Webkit will support it, and every Linux user is going to ditch Firefox and run Konqueror + KWebkitPart, Rekonq, or Midori with PPAPI support, instead.
If flash is dying, then the question is what video/audio codecs are used? Vorbis is better than Mp3, but not better than AAC Professional. If/when ghost comes out, it'll simply blow all of the competition out of the water. Video on the other hand could be a problem. h.364 is better than VP8 and the successor to h.364 is being worked on. We need a better open source and patent free video codec so we can comfortably dominate and then the html5 conversion would be far less messy. Our hopes seem to lie with daala.
Why don't distros install GNASH or Llightspark by default???
Ubuntu, Fedora and Suse pride themselves on having only FOSS software. But why don't they include GNASH and/or LIGHTSPARK in their default installations? They don't have to install US-patented codecs, just the players. It seems that these distros are actually pushing people to install Adobe Flash rather than the FOSS alternatives.