Last edited by Teho; 05-12-2012 at 02:10 PM.
Considering that the latest Phoronix survey put Ubuntu at >50% Linux desktop share, and that the only other distro which has the prospects to make significant inroads into the desktop (ChromeOS) also uses Upstart, I'd say calling systemd the soon-to-be "de facto init system for Linux" is stretching it.
Ubuntu is extremely popular, but they have never been a technical leader, nor will they ever be one. They can't do things on their own, and typically only package other people's work. That's their core competence: marketing and polish. This recent policy of forking Linux away and doing everything in an incompatible way, with Unity and upstart, is going to fail.
There are basically three distros which have the power to make others follow. Fedora, OpenSUSE and Debian. Among these, Fedora is unquestionably number one, given the amount of key people they are directly funding. Slack, Gentoo and Arch all do good work, but form a (very respectable) fringe.
Call me old-fashioned, but I thought that Debian was more important in the server space than all of those combined, and AFAIK they have no plans to move.it's also going to be used in CentOS, Unbreakable Linux and Scientific Linux to name a few in the future. These are the distributions that matter in the server space.
In the enthusiast space, Slack, Arch, and Gentoo are not moving, but enthusiasts are like that, they like swimming against the current.
Last edited by Teho; 05-13-2012 at 06:23 AM.
And despite the popularity of CentOS, I'd imagine Debian to play a bigger role, and things like Scientific Linux are a blip on the radar.
Last edited by pingufunkybeat; 05-13-2012 at 09:38 AM.