I think Ubuntu is forking too much, this will end in a "forking hell", because the projects will get harder and harder to maintain / update.
If you look at software center you see how complicate it is for ubuntu to build a simple, fast application. I don´t think they have to manpower to maintain that much forks..
I believe the packages will outdate over time and updates will be slower and slower. If that happens, the userbase switches over to another distribution like Mint...


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