Maybe the best way to get a somewhat credible number would be to get the number of unique machines accessing each distro's repository, like what google does with Android. The problem is that it would require that all (or a very large percentage) of the available mirrors provide this info and tracking mechanism.
I can imagine that Ubuntu is more used mainly because it has much more related sites and blogs than what we can find for other distros. This is a good indication that it's popular, although by how much is hard to tell.
On the "easy to use" argument I couldn't agree more. Before software center I could never understood why people said that Ubuntu was "easy to use" when AFAICT Fedora was exactly the same but in a blue hue. Nowadays Software Center does make it easier to discover and install applications, and Unity is different from what you get in other distros, but other than that there's not much difference. I use Ubuntu now, after a few years with Fedora and openSUSE, mainly because of Unity (yes, that's right: Unity) and software center.



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