Thread: The HANS REISER Murder Trial. Timeline and Analysis.

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From todays blog @ http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/...entry_id=26050

According to the POLL from
.
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/200...-poll-did.html
.
The probability that:
.
1) a member of public thinks: Not Guilty = 0.63 (63%)
.
2) a member of public thinks: first degree murder = 0.14 (14%)
.
Since all jurists fell into the atypical 14% case we have that:
.
The probability that the first jurist is a typical member of the public
= 0.14
.
The probability that the first 2 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)(0.14) = 0.0196
.
The probability that the first 3 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)(0.14)(0.14) = 0.00312816
.
The probability that the first 4 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)(0.14)(0.14)(0.14) = 0.0005
.
The probability that the first 5 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)(0.14)(0.14)(0.14)(0.14) = 0.00008
.
The probability that all 12 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)^12 = 0.00000000006
= ONE in 16,666,666,666
= ONE in 17 BILLION.
.
One in 17 billion. NOW THAT IS A RIGGED JURY.

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Originally Posted by Jade
According to the POLL from
.
http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/200...-poll-did.html

[...]

The probability that all 12 jurists are typical members of the public
= (0.14)^12 = 0.00000000006
= ONE in 16,666,666,666
= ONE in 17 BILLION.
.
One in 17 billion. NOW THAT IS A RIGGED JURY.
A poll taken from wired of all places is anything but representative and certainly a far cry away from a poll taken among people who have never heard of Linux and ReiserFS.

I call you "conclusion" preposterous.

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The Reiser Jury was RIGGED.

From http://linuxhelp.150m.com/politics/rigged-jury.htm

Not much point having this twice on the same page.
Last edited by Jade; 05-06-2008 at 11:00 PM.

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Originally Posted by Jade
So our assumption that the jury was similar to that of the general polled public, is clearly false..
Your assumption is flawed for many reasons.

- polls by nature are misleading by simply the wording of them which results in biased results
- people that vote on polls are rarely fully informed of the complete events and often make their decisions from one articles POV
- people that read Wired are not your typical "off the street" person
- conspiracy theories always bring out the nutjobs
- small sample size in a concentrated demographic skews real world statistics
- I'd also be willing to bet that none of the voters were present first hand at the trial but relied on sensationalized reporting.

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Originally Posted by Jade
The Reiser Jury was RIGGED.
A poll taken from wired of all places is anything but representative and certainly a far cry away from a poll taken among people who have never heard of Linux and ReiserFS.

I call you "conclusion" preposterous.

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Originally Posted by DF5JT
A poll taken from wired of all places is anything but representative and certainly a far cry away from a poll taken among people who have never heard of Linux and ReiserFS.

I call you "conclusion" preposterous.
Exactly, the only thing stacked was the poll.

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Originally Posted by DF5JT
A poll taken from wired of all places is anything but representative and certainly a far cry away from a poll taken among people who have never heard of Linux and ReiserFS.

I call you "conclusion" preposterous.
Its not really so hard to believe..

Not only has there been presented NO piece of hard evidence against him, they havent even established 100% that she is dead..

When you think about this, is it hard to believe that the chance that 12 randomly selected people will find the person guilty beyond reasonable doubt, is low?

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Originally Posted by Redeeman
they havent even established 100% that she is dead..
They never have found Jimmy Hoffa either.

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So you would trust yourself in the hands of such a jury, were you on trial for murdor and you were innocent?

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Having a dead body present has never been a requirement to have a conviction. Just like they never have to find stolen property to prove theft.

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